Even though ECB President Trichet was quite clear last week in signaling that rate hikes are not over, based upon interest rate futures, investors are actually pricing in NO RATE HIKES for the rest of the year and into the first half of 2012.
Since the beginning of the year, the ECB insisted that the sovereign debt crisis would not affect their monetary policy decisions which are made based exclusively on the levels of inflation but investors believe that the crisis cannot be ignored.
The other major changes are the following:
RBA – Market now expects a Rate Cut in October
FED – No rate hikes expected before the second half of 2012
BOE – No rate hikes expected before the second half of 2012
RBNZ – First rate hike pushed out from Jan to March
BoC – First rate hike pushed out from Feb to April
Here are the details:
- Don’t be Fooled by the Pullback in the Dollar Because…. - November 14, 2018
- Rise of the USD – How high can it go with - November 14, 2018
- VIDEO – Targets for GBP, USDJPY and EURO - October 5, 2016
- RBA Meeting Preview - October 3, 2016
- How to Trade the Dollar into the Presidential Debate - September 26, 2016
- Here’s How to Trade the Sept ECB Rate Decision - September 7, 2016
- Bank of Canada September Preview - September 6, 2016
- Will August Payrolls Disappoint the Dollar? - September 1, 2016
- Where is the Dollar Headed this Week? - August 29, 2016
- Will Aug NFPs Help or Hurt USD/JPY? - August 4, 2016
All the Canadian banks are much more aggressive this week in their outlook for BOC hikes. Most I have seen call for 50bp by Oct-Dec, with only TD yesterday saying no hikes til January, notwithstanding expectations Fed wont hike until late 2012 at earliest. The current consensus seems to be BOC rate of 2.0% in summer 2012.