ECB to Leave Rates Unchanged for Rest of the Yr? RBA to Cut?

Even though ECB President Trichet was quite clear last week in signaling that rate hikes are not over, based upon interest rate futures, investors are actually pricing in NO RATE HIKES for the rest of the year and into the first half of 2012.

Since the beginning of the year, the ECB insisted that the sovereign debt crisis would not affect their monetary policy decisions which are made based exclusively on the levels of inflation but investors believe that the crisis cannot be ignored.

The other major changes are the following:

RBA – Market now expects a Rate Cut in October
FED – No rate hikes expected before the second half of 2012
BOE – No rate hikes expected before the second half of 2012
RBNZ – First rate hike pushed out from Jan to March
BoC – First rate hike pushed out from Feb to April

Here are the details:


  1. All the Canadian banks are much more aggressive this week in their outlook for BOC hikes. Most I have seen call for 50bp by Oct-Dec, with only TD yesterday saying no hikes til January, notwithstanding expectations Fed wont hike until late 2012 at earliest. The current consensus seems to be BOC rate of 2.0% in summer 2012.


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