It has been a while since I provided updated numbers for the market’s rate hike expectations and I will chalk it up to my travels! Rate expectations are always changing and a lot has happened over the past month. Its always important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in!
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to March)
Fed – One 25bp rate hike expected by Q2 2012 > Compared to Q1 rate hike before
BoE – First Rate hike expected in Jan > compared to prior forecast for 50bp rate hike in 2011
ECB – 50bp of additional tightening expected > compared to 75bp after April hike
RBA – Close to one 25bp rate hike by years end > significant upgrade from March expectations
RBNZ – One rate hike in Jan 2012 > bumped up from March
BoC – 25bp rate hike in Oct > slight downgrade in rate hike expectations