Here are the latest central bank rate cut/hike expectations. Nothing priced in for the Fed, BoE or ECB (though I expect the latter two to pull the trigger on more stimulus in the coming months).
RBA – Investors are pricing in 125bp of easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia by the end of the year! I have been bearish the AUD but 125bp is a FAR out of line. At most the RBA will lower rates by another 75bp and more likely only 50bp by Dec.
RBNZ – Investors are also looking for 50bp of easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Central banks have been particularly vocal since the beginning of the year, either by expressing their skepticism or satisfaction with the easing of credit conditions and incoming economic data. For some countries, this has changed rate hike expectations, for others it simply confirms existing views. As you may know, central bank rate hike expectations change often but here’s the latest. Find out which central banks are expected to keep monetary policy unchanged in the coming year and which ones are expected to ease below!
Federal Reserve – No Changes in 2012 (surprise, surprise)
European Central Bank – No more Rate Cuts in 2012 – upgrade from the pricing in of 25bp of easing in Jan
Bank of England – No Changes in 2012
Bank of Canada – No Changes in 2012
Reserve Bank of Australia – Mkt was pricing in 75bp of easing this yr back in Jan, now only 50bp expected
Reserve Bank of New Zealand – No Changes in 2012
And here are the details!