2009 Economic Calendar for Forex Traders

I have created a really useful 2009 economic calendar for forex traders. This calendar through GFT includes all of the key US economic releases such as FOMC meetings for the rest of the year, non-farm payrolls, retail sales AND the same events for the other major countries like the UK, Canada, Australia and the Eurozone.

It is completely free, so download and print it out today and let me know if you like it!

Is the Currency and Equity Rally a Mirage?

In every major bear market, there are relief rallies and that is what we have seen today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 300 points during the US trading session before reversing violently to end the day up more than 550 points. The major turnaround in equities has forced the US dollar to give back its gains.

However as much as I would love to see the global unwind come to an end, the continued weakness in US economic data makes me really skeptical of this rally. Nothing is behind the move other than short covering. Therefore this could be more of mirage than a bottom for currencies and equities.

Ask Your Neighbor About Retail Sales

Jobless claims rose 516k last week to the highest level since September 2001 and it has a direct correlation with consumer spending. Retail sales are expected to contract for the fourth consecutive month. The recent bankruptcies and profit warnings confirms that US retailers are already struggling. Both ISCS and SpendingPulse reported a sharp decline in sales while various independent studies across the nation report that consumers are cutting back. The recent drop in oil prices means that gasoline receipts will fall as well. The average price of a gallon of gasoline has fallen close to 50 percent from its summer highs. We don’t expect consumer spending to recover until well after the holiday shopping season. Just ask your neighbor and he will probably tell you that he is cutting back his spending as well.

No V Shaped Recovery
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What Matters More? The Good or the Bad

Every day, equities, currency and bond traders weigh the good news with the bad to determine if they want to buy or sell.

Today, there were just as many positive reports that should have helped to stabilize the markets but has instead failed to stem the bleeding in equities and currencies.

In a market environment where pessimism is being felt in the bones of investors, it has become increasingly difficult to shift market sentiment.

The US dollar and the Japanese Yen continued to outperform as risk aversion drags nearly all of the major currency pairs lower. Even though USD/JPY has remained unchanged, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD fell more than 200 pips.

The Good News: US Government Accelerates Efforts to Minimize Foreclosures

As investors remain nervous about the outlook for the global economy, good news has failed to have a positive impact on risk appetite. Today officials from the Treasury and the Federal Housing Finance Agency said that through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac they plan on accelerating efforts to help homeowners that are facing foreclosures. This includes reducing interest rate and extending loan terms, which should have been perceived as a step in the right direction. More specifically, the mortgage servicers will help borrowers who are more than 90 days delinquent bring their monthly payments down to 38% of their gross income, which is now considered the threshold of affordability. For an American that earns $75,000 a year, affordable means monthly payments of $2375 or under.

In addition after falling to a record low, IBD/TIPP reported a material improvement in economic optimism.

The Bad News: Fears of GM Bankruptcy

However the market has completely shrugged off the positive developments and has instead chosen to focus on the fears that General Motors will be forced into bankruptcy. The White House has indicated that they are open to accelerating the loans previously approved for the auto industry while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called on Congress to pass an emergency rescue package for the industry.

$25B loans were originally allocated to the automakers for developing more fuel-efficient vehicles, but the legislation could be changed to divert the money towards more urgent initiatives such as helping the automakers fend off bankruptcy.

Given President-elect Barack Obama’s pledge to help the auto industry last week, official support is inevitable. However if the government does not act fast, the market could push the automaker into bankruptcy. On Monday, analysts issued price targets of zero for GM’s stock. With 263k workers under their umbrella, General Motors could be too big to fail.

EUR: Pressured By Problems in the Banking Sector
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Event Risk Calendar for Week of 02.03.08 – 02.08.08

bkpicsmall

There are alot of big event risks next week including the Fed rate decision and non-farm payrolls. Don’t miss the opportunity to profit from next week’s busy data calendar. We have a lot of very strong views. Stay ahead of the curve with the BK Forex Advisor Event Risk Calendar. Become a Member. Get More Details.

The Full Event Risk Calendar that is categorized into 3 Trading Tiers is for Members Only.

This is a part of what our latest calendar looks like:

calendar020108

These are for SHORT TERM news trading and the views are subject to change as the calendar week progresses (updates will be posted in the Members Section)


Here are the Tradeable Events that we have the strongest views on:

1) Australian Trade Balance
2) UK Construction Sector PMI
3) UK Service Sector PMI
4) US Service Sector ISM
5) Eurozone Retail Sales
6) Australian Construction Sector PMI
7) US Pending Home Sales
8 ) German Industrial Production
9) Canadian Employment

News Trading Calendar for Week of 01.27.08 – 02.01.08

bkpicsmall

There are alot of big event risks next week including the Fed rate decision and non-farm payrolls. Don’t miss the opportunity to profit from next week’s busy data calendar. We have a lot of very strong views. Stay ahead of the curve with the BK Forex Advisor Event Risk Calendar. Become a Member. Get More Details.

The Full Event Risk Calendar that is categorized into 3 Trading Tiers is for Members Only.

This is a part of what our latest calendar looks like:

calendar010408

These are for SHORT TERM news trading and the views are subject to change as the calendar week progresses (updates will be posted in the Members Section)


Here are the Tradeable Events that we have the strongest views on:

1) New Home Sales
2) UK Mortgage Lending and Consumer Credit
3) FOMC Rate Decision
4) Nationwide House Prices
5) German Retail Sales
6) GfK Consumer Confidence
7) Canadian GDP
8 ) Chicago PMI
9) Swiss PMI
10) UK Manufacturing PMI
11) US ISM