Euro: Headed for 1.35?

Hawkish comments from ECB member Weber is driving the EUR/USD through the roof. The currency pair is up close to 2.5 percent or more than 300 pips.

After cutting interest rates by 75bp earlier this month, ECB member Weber said today that a January rate cut is not a done deal. He pointed out that the ECB has never taken interest rates below 2 percent and that the central bank doesn’t have enough info to decide on a January rate cut. Market tensions are expected to ease next year and he really wants to avoid negative real interest rates. More importantly, he added that when the economy recovers, the ECB will need to raise rates promptly.

In terms of monetary easing, the ECB has been one of the least aggressive central banks this year. They have only cut interest rates by 150bp, compared to the 325bp by the BoE. This is why EUR/GBP is moving closer to my 0.90 target.

With the Fed cutting interest rates next week, the hawkish comments from the ECB will fuel further gains in the EUR/USD going into the US rate decision – there is nothing standing in the way of EUR/USD hitting 1.35.


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