Latest Data: Major Changes to Rate Hike Expectations

The volatility in the financial markets has led to major changes in rate hike expectations. Here are the latest numbers and the highlights compared to a month ago (see Feb numbers):

Fed – One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 instead of 50bp
BoE – One 25bp rate hike expected this year instead of 75bp
ECB – No major changes, still 50bp by year end and 75bp by Q1 2012
RBA – Now a bias to ease, from one 25bp rate hike expected before
RBNZ – One rate hike in March 2012 down from two by Jan 2012
BoC – 50bp now expected for Feb, down from 100bp


  1. Can you tell us how each of these odds is calculated? I figured out how to get the rate hike for the US with the Federal Funds info, but I can’t figure out how to get the odds for other countries. Thanks!


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